What should we do at the time of economic recession world around?

Recently, I have been logon to FOB forum which be seemed as the largest and professional foreign trade forum in china. What I find out most are the negative points and emotion which penetrated over the whole form people. If there exist some common topics, that probably are the fear and lack of confidence. At a large extent, they don’t have mistake, since you can not image what the worst impact on the export line duo to the sluggish and deflation. The world people don’t want to buy the goods, reluctant to consume, in another word, that becomes the so called virtual demand shortage—Keynes. Most of them don’t have a good expectation over the next two or three years, so they feel fearful indeed. They scare for being fired someday, for decline of wage, for they don’t have much clean idea about how they could survive this winter without being trapped into a panic situation, for the kid tuition, for the mortgage loan which should pay off monthly, for the rising price of foods, for the chaos of house market, stock foreign exchange market, for too many reason they fear about. How can all of these negative atmosphere could not affect them and make them happy instead, no, they all lack of confidence at last. They don’t have much acknowledges about which direction they should turn to, and what the next step should be come up with; what is the prospective pertain to the economic development tendency next two or three years? How can I earn money to afford to house, car, family, kid? They are at sea.

We could let along of the macro economy policies which be enacted by the minister, such as decrease the deposit rate and legal deposit rate by 2%, go up the export tax refund rate to encourage and stimulate net export, decline the tax rate to increase the personal governable money, go down the house market to suit for the middle-class level. That seems don’t have much effect on our common people from the appearance, but what should we do now? I figure out some ways below to illustrate my thoughts.

Firstly, keep confident and don’t lose out your bottom line, premier Wen said that confidence are much more valuable than gold now. You are not a loser if you don’t admit it. One person discouraged one product line stagnant, one area go back, one country sluggish. How could we image if all of the participators are lack of confidence to defend with this situation?

Secondly, clear out the junk, be you. We should not go ahead without a right direction; neither should we just go ahead followed by the tracks of others. We must clearly map out our mind and not be cluttered up. I mean, seriously, if your mind’s in chaos, how could you possibly make a clear decision? Don’t worry about there is one day, you wandering around street and no home for sleeping. Don’t fear, please!

Thirdly, know what you want and where you go. Risks always come along with benefits; crisis also mean to chances. Go a holistic view about the current situation, some idea occur to me recently. Most of the manufactures especially the labor intense industries adjust their price to gear toward market demand, and tendency go down. That means that you would have more at the same purchasing power. As to China, the dubbed cheapest labor resources, that is true, when the vendor couldn’t sell out their goods, they may make discount or off sale strategies. Lower interest rate when borrow money from bank, lower cost for investing estate industry. The supply power is excesses than demand desire, then the price down. The exchange rate of RMB by US dollar is rising, that mean RMB don’t have enough value to purchase, so the labeled USD price will do down too. That is chance, don’t you see?

Four, make a grand plan and take a small step at a time. Not as much desperate as to prepare from now on. Most people feared and not greed any more, they move slowly and carefully, look out and hesitate, scared and want to sleep. You, what should you do? You must get up and turn right up here to eat their lunch now. Please note, you are not thief, you just be a common guy with a little savvy confidence only. That is all.

In my opinion, the recent export rate decline should due to many reasons however, the main possibility is that foreigner don’t will to purchase, from domestic or from oversea, they would rather like to deposit their money into bank, even if it is utterly low interest rate, because they believe security is the top-priority task which they prefer to. God know what is tomorrow. On the contrary, they should by some thing for live, I mean the basic demand, the lower elasticity goods, and they would definitely purchase even a small quantity than before. Ok, the fact is that one will pursue the cheaper goods if the on the condition of same quality, where they could get their cheap but qualified goods, the answer is, from China. Nevertheless, do you know why the buyer could not get the goods they want and the seller could not sale the goods they prepared? Let me tell you, that is because the anisomerous information and transparence shortage, the buyer don’t want to convince the sellers’ loyalty and trust. The seller can’t persuade the buyer to complete the payment before delivery. The dark box operation of dispatching process, the procrastination lead time, the poor quality, the delay of replying, all of them will be no exceptional contribute to the recession of exportation. How could we, as for now, being as a micro- molecule, handle these problems? Please find the answer set forth below.

Setup a connectional terminal for exportation, from which we provide the whole information include the reputation of manufacturers, the goods quality specifications, the certification of the goods proved, the supply possibility of monthly turnover quantities, the third parties guarantee projects, the transparent produce and delivery process, the definite lead time and dispatch date, the effective custom clearance ability, the reliable forwarders’ aptitude, the competitive quotation and favorable discount planning, the largest and reliable supplier channel, the trust worth and professionalisms key knowledge and attitudes. I mean, as to each of the above details, we should build a fully functional hub to assemble and distribute information. I should also emphasize the third parties guarantee projects that is important and necessary much. Parties must be involved with banks, insurance company, especially in-export insurance company, custom official, trade-related bureau. The banks prove and guarantee the capital ability, the custom facilitate the clearance process, the china council for the promotion of international trade and china chamber of international commerce guarantee the exporters’ reputation.

In conclusion, like a human ill sometime, the economy always have his own cycle from survive to thrive. What we should only is to be confident and prepare well until next stagnancy.